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KCI 후보
산업용 천연가스 수요관리 프로그램 최적화를 위한 동태적 시뮬레이션에 관한 연구
A Study on the " Extended " DSM Programs in Korean LNG Market
장한수(Han Soo Chang),최기련(Ki Ryun Choi)
UCI I410-ECN-0102-2009-530-003948679

This paper summarizes the results of a study that assess how a demand side management (DSM) system addresses key economic and environmental challenges facing in the Korean natural gas sector considering; ·high discrepancies of seasonal consumption volume and of load factor in unmatured domestic LNG market, ·unfavorable and volatile international LNG market, imposing with the contestable "take-or-pay" contract terms, ·low profile of LNG and existence of market barriers against an optimal fuel mix status in the industrial energy sector. A particular focus of this study is to establish an `extended` DSM system in the unmatured gas market, especially in industry sector, that could play a key role to assure an optimum fuel mix scheme. Under the concept of `extended` DSM, a system dynamics modeling approach has been introduced to explore the option to maximize economic benefits in terms of the national energy system optimization, entailing different ways of commitments accounting for different DSM measures and time delay scenarios. The study concludes that policy options exist that can reduce inefficiencies in gas industry and end-use system at no net costs to national economy. The most scenarios find that, by the year 2015, it is possible to develop a substantial potential of increased industrial gas end-uses under more reliable and stable load patterns. Assessment of sensitivity analysis suggests that time delay factor, in formulating DSM scenarios, plays a key role to overcome various market barriers in domestic LNG market and provides a strong justification for the policy portfolios `just in time` (time accurateness), which eventually contribute to establish an optimum fuel mix strategy. The study indicates also the needs of advanced studies based on SD approach to articulate uncertainty in unmatured energy market analysis, including gas.

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