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KCI 후보
비모수 지역난방 수요예측모형
A Nonparametric Prediction Model of District Heating Demand
박주헌(Joo Heon Park)
UCI I410-ECN-0102-2009-530-003948573

The heat demand prediction is an essential issue in management of district heating system. Without an accurate prediction through the lead-time period, it might be impossible to make a rational decision on many issues such as heat production scheduling and heat exchange among the plants which are very critical for the district heating company. The heat demand varies with the temperature as well as the time nonlinearly. And the parametric specification of the heat demand model would cause a misspecification bias in prediction. A nonparametric model for the short-term heat demand prediction has been developed as an alternative to avoiding the misspecification error and tested with the actual data. The prediction errors are reasonably small enough to use the model to predict a few hour ahead heat demand.

[자료제공 : 네이버학술정보]
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