본 연구는 최근에 급증하는 가계부채의 영향요인을 개별 가계의 관점에서 분석, 관련 정책의 시사점(示唆點)과 문제점을 찾기 위해 한국복지패널의 2008년 및 2014년 조사 중 가구의 부채·재산·지출 항목을 변수로 부채에 영향을 미치는 요인과 중요도를 분석하고, 데이터마이닝(의사결정트리) 기법을 활용하여 가구 특성별 부채규모를 예측하였다. 분석 결과, 주택 관련 3가지 요인(전세보증금, 부채, 부채이자)이 금융기관 대출에 영향을 미치고, 금융기관 대출이 증가하여 가계부채를 견인하였다. 향후 가계부채 관리정책은 ‘금융기관 대출’에만 집중하기보다 ‘전세보증금’에 초점을 맞추고, 상가 등 ‘주택 외 건축물’에도 관심을 가지며, 주택 난방비와 전기료 등 광열수도비의 상승을 완화하는 정책을 마련하는 한편, 정책 추진 기구를 금융위원회 단독에서 모든 관계기관 참여 조직으로 확대하여 종합대책을 마련하는 등 정책의 종합적인 재점검과 획기적인 방향 전환이 필요하다고 할 수 있다.

This study intends to analyze factors that contributed to the recent growth of household debt from the perspective of individual households, and identify considerations and issues associated with the current household debt-related policies. Data from Korea Welfare Panel Study (KOWEPS) 2008 and 2014 was used to analyze what factors affect household debt and how much each factor contributes by using the debts, assets, and expenditures of households as variables. Data mining technique (decision-making tree model) was applied to forecast the size of debt by the characteristics of households. The analysis found that 3 factors related to house (long-term lease (“Jeonse”) money deposit, debt, and debt interest) primarily led households to take out loans from financial institutions, which, in turn, further increased overall household debt. In 2014, the “gas and electricity expenses” of households increased to be the fifth largest contributing factor in terms of household debt growth, following the 3 house-related factors mentioned above and “other interest”. As for house-related debt, the following factors are provided in the order of contribution: living space, housing tenure status (owner-occupation or leased under “Jeonse” agreement, etc.), housing type (apartment or stand-alone house, etc.) and heating facility. Therefore, it is advisable that the Korean government’s policies aiming to curb the growing household debt focus not only on “loans from financial institutions,” but also on “Jeonse.” The Korean government also needs to pay attention to other types of buildings including commercial buildings for effective household debt control, and implement a policy to curb the growth of “gas and electricity expense.” Additionally, household debt management policy-making process needs to involve all the relevant government entities, rather than addressed single-handedly by the Financial Services Commission, so that policies tackling household debt growth can be far-reaching and comprehensive. An overall review of the current policies and a dramatic change in policy direction is deemed necessary.