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논문검색은 역시 페이퍼서치

한국시스템다이내믹스 연구검색

Korean System Dynamics Review


  • - 주제 : 공학분야 > 전자공학
  • - 성격 : 학술지
  • - 간기: 계간
  • - 국내 등재 : KCI 등재
  • - 해외 등재 : -
  • - ISSN : 1229-8085
  • - 간행물명 변경 사항 :
논문제목
수록 범위 : 22권 1호 (2021)
7,200
초록보기
Recently, the number of births in Korea has been declining steeply, and the rate of decline has been alarmingly accelerating. The current number of births depends on the interaction between the population size of the women of childbearing age of the previous generation and the marriage & fertility rates of the present generation. This paper explores the dynamics of the population size of women of primary childbearing age and its impact on the number of births. By modeling the population size of women of primary childbearing age, the number of births, and their structural feedback relationships over time, the simulation confirms the assumption that the number of births in Korea will decrease more rapidly as the stock of fertile women decreases steeply in the future. More importantly, the simulation model describes how the decrease in marriage & fertility rates interact with population changes, allowing further explorations of various assumptions.

코로나19에 대응하는 세분화된 사회적 거리두기 정책의 효과 분석

김동규 ( Kim Dong-kyu ) , 정윤 ( Chung Yoon ) , 이견직 ( Lee Kyun Jick )
6,100
초록보기
Regarding COVID-19, Korea is implementing a quarantine policy by introducing social distancing in stages. However, regarding the stage of social distancing in recent, the government has announced a relaxed standard of social distancing taking into account the economic situation. The purpose of this study is to examine how the situation of COVID-19 in Korea changes according to the relaxed standards, and how the changed standards affect the economic situation and the situation of covid-19. By referring to the overseas SEIR model, Korea's situation was entered, and a variable called social distancing was added to see the difference between the existing standard and the relaxed standard of social distancing. As a result of the study, the changed social distancing increased about 50,000 people compared to the number of infected populations of the existing social distancing, and the recovered population also increased more than twice. These results are considered greater than the risks that the Korean government can afford and may lead to a shortage of Korean medical resources.

시스템 사고를 이용한 커뮤니티 리질리언스 구성요소 간 인과구조 탐색

주필주 ( Joo Pil-ju ) , 강지원 ( Kang Ji-won )
6,100
초록보기
Modern society is faced with multiple uncertainties from internal or external events. Although some disasters may be preventable in some degree, global health issues like COVID-19 or natural disasters including earthquakes and floods cannot be fully predictable accurately. The paper explores the concept of “Community Resilience”, which allows the society to recover to a better-than-before status upon facing an unavoidable disaster. Due to complex and dynamic features of a local community, it is difficult to calculate variables affecting Community Resilience as previous studies sought to identify its components and evaluation methods in various aspects. The purpose of this paper is to analyze causal relationship among the core elements of community resilience through Causal Loop Analysis. The results are as follows. First, when a disaster occurs, resource performance, resource diversity, and resource redundancy have a positive feedback structure for community resilience. Second, resource diversity affects institutional memory, and as such experiences and information are accumulated, the connectedness is strengthened. In addition, as institutional memories accumulate, innovative learning is more likely to be systematic and continuous. Third, innovative learning has a positive effect on the formation of consensus among the members and the internal bonds of the community, which in turn affects interactions with external organizations with a positive feedback on the resource performance. As a result, a community with high community resilience show less damage and shorter recovery times than those with low community resilience. That is, even if a disaster of similar type and magnitude occurs, the damage scale and recovery time may differ depending on the level of community resilience in the community. In order to reinforce community resilience, it is important to create a virtuous cycle amongst the components of Community Resilience.
6,900
초록보기
This study attempts to identify the structure in which YouTube has been able to grow rapidly. Also, this study seeks to find out the structure that constrains YouTube’s growth. Several entities were involved in YouTube’s growth, so a causal map analysis was used to consider them as a system. The results are as follows. Five partial causal maps and one comprehensive causal map related to YouTube are drawn. A few implications are derived from these causal analysis. First, YouTube’s credibility plays an important role in YouTube growth. Second, the discrimination ability of YouTube algorithms should be improved quickly. Third, if YouTube constrains a YouTuber, detailed explanations are needed on why and how to solve it. Fourth, it is also necessary to consider increasing reliability by improving video recommendation algorithm that only pursue advertising revenue currently. Fifth, YouTube needs to increase the subscription service ratio. Sixth, improving the mobile interface is required to maintain viewing time of YouTube.
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